Brent crude rose to 63.34 dollars per barrel on November 24, 2025, up 1.25 percent from the previous day, though the benchmark remained near month-long lows as diplomatic efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict triggered concerns about potential oil supply increases.
The modest daily gain followed a week when Brent logged its biggest decline since early October, with Friday’s close leaving the benchmark down roughly 3 percent. Over the past month, Brent’s price has fallen 2.40 percent, and is down 12.61 percent compared to the same time last year.
Weekend talks in Geneva between American and Ukrainian officials signaled movement on a framework aimed at securing a ceasefire. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reported tremendous progress in Ukraine peace talks after Geneva negotiations with Ukrainian delegation on 28-point framework, describing the discussions as highly productive.
Rubio called the Geneva gathering the most productive and meaningful meeting so far in this entire process, though the proposal has faced scrutiny from European allies who view portions as overly favorable to Moscow. Rubio said negotiators had made some changes to US President Donald Trump’s 28-point peace plan, including around the role of NATO, to narrow the differences between the sides.
However, questions persist about the proposal’s origins and terms. A bipartisan group of US senators said Rubio told them Saturday that the plan had originated with Russia and was actually a wish list for Moscow, rather than a serious push for peace. The State Department denied this characterization, and Rubio insisted on social media late Saturday that the peace proposal was authored by the US.
The diplomatic progress, while uncertain, is already influencing energy market expectations. A potential peace agreement could lead to easing sanctions on Russian crude, potentially restoring significant supply to global markets that analysts project will face oversupply conditions in 2026.
Current measures have left almost 48 million barrels of Russian crude stranded at sea, according to Reuters reporting. Market observers warn that even partial sanctions relief could release substantial Russian volumes into an already well-supplied market, deepening potential oversupply and pressuring prices lower.
Oil markets have carried what traders call a war premium since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, reflecting concerns about prolonged supply disruptions. That premium is diminishing as diplomatic channels open, with traders repositioning for scenarios where Russian barrels return to markets alongside weakening global demand signals and rising inventories.
The benchmark has experienced sustained weakness throughout recent months. Brent remains on track for a fourth consecutive monthly decline, representing its longest losing streak since 2023. Contract for difference (CFD) market data confirms the downward trajectory across multiple timeframes.
A convergence of factors beyond diplomatic developments continues weighing on crude prices. Weakening demand indicators from major economies, expanding production from non-OPEC+ suppliers, and concerns about structural oversupply heading into 2026 have kept market sentiment cautious.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+), led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, face complex calculations. Earlier this month, the producers’ alliance agreed to raise output targets for December 2025 by 137,000 barrels per day, continuing a series of small monthly increases that began in April.
The alliance agreed to pause any further hikes in January, February and March 2026, citing fears of a supply glut in what is usually the weakest quarter for demand. This cautious approach reflects producer concerns about market balance amid uncertain consumption patterns and potential new supply sources.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark, has tracked similar patterns to Brent. By late morning in London, Brent crude was changing hands at around 62.2 dollars per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate hovered near 57.7 dollars per barrel, both down a little over 0.5 percent on the day.
Technical analysts note that both benchmarks have broken from recent consolidation patterns, printing successive lower highs and lower lows in classic downtrend formations. For Brent, traders watch support levels around 62 dollars and then closer to 60 dollars, with resistance forming near 63.8 to 65 dollars.
Investment banks have adjusted their forecasts accordingly. Bank of America now expects Brent to average around 60 dollars in 2026, reinforcing a lower for longer narrative that reflects expectations of sustained pressure from multiple supply and demand factors.
The possibility of sanctions relief adds a new dimension to already bearish sentiment. If negotiations accelerate and produce tangible results, analysts suggest oil prices may face additional downward pressure as investors reassess the balance between geopolitical risk premiums and fundamental supply-demand dynamics pointing toward surplus conditions.
Markets continue monitoring diplomatic developments closely. The revised framework announced by American and Ukrainian officials represents what Rubio described as a living, breathing document that would continue evolving. Any final agreement would require Russian acceptance, adding further uncertainty to the timeline and ultimate impact on energy markets.
For crude markets, the immediate outlook hinges on whether peace negotiations translate into concrete agreements that could reshape sanctions regimes and global oil flows. Until then, traders balance diplomatic optimism against persistent concerns about oversupply, weak demand growth, and expanding production from sources outside OPEC+ coordination